Nearly thirty years ago, Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in a war that led to the expulsion of the Azeri population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Since then, Russia kept a fragile peace between the two nations. Until now. Azerbaijan has retaken its lost territory, and nearly the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh has fled to Armenia. Towards the end of the 1990s, Serbia attempted to expel the Albanian population of Kosovo but was stopped by a NATO intervention which included the bombing of Belgrade. Since then, NATO has kept a fragile peace between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo. Until now. Serbia has augmented its armed presence on the border in a manner that recalls what took place across the border from Ukraine last year. The received wisdom amongst Western commentators is that Azerbaijan succeeded in taking advantage of Russian weakness but that NATO, however preoccupied it may be in Ukraine and elsewhere, won’t let Kosovo down. But this calculus misses a point. It has become axiomatic to believe that the rectification of ‘humanitarian concerns’, ie, ethnic grievances, has priority over sovereignty and sometimes over peace. So, don’t expect Azerbaijan’s assertiveness to cease at the Lachin corridor. But also don’t expect Russian frustration with Armenia’s government, or Russian disinterest, to last. Don’t expect NATO’s patience with Kosovo’s government, or NATO’s omnipresence, to last, either. Don’t count on anyone’s restraint. And don’t think Europe has seen an end to the redrawing of national borders by force. If the curtain on another thirty years’ war in Europe was pulled back nearly thirty years ago, the war has only just begun. © 2023 Talleyrand |